Manager, Forecast Science

Manager, Forecast Science


Airbnb has become a global platform with a wide network of guests and hosts that interact in complex ways. We are looking for a talented Senior Forecasting Data Scientist, who can think through these complex interactions and analyze them using advanced statistical tools in order to forecast how interventions and product changes will impact the continued growth at Airbnb.

This role will be a hybrid between data scientist, engineer, and strategic business consultant; we’re looking for a self-starter with an entrepreneurial mindset, someone who has the technical savvy to work with complex datasets and also the business acumen to transform raw data into actionable insights and recommendations.

  • Develop and maintain Airbnb’s advanced statistical growth model, identifying and analyzing historical drivers of performance in order to increase our understanding of the business, guide the allocation of funds, and improve the accuracy of our growth forecast
  • Develop and maintain Airbnb’s Marginal Efficiency model for paid marketing channels to optimize our marketing ROI.
  • Conduct deep dive analysis to better understand drivers of business success and key growth levers
  • Provide ongoing proactive communication and collaboration throughout the organization, including with Product, Engineering, Data Science, Finance, and Business Operations
  • Communicate performance metrics, clearly explaining the business reasons for variances, driving understanding of deviations from predictions, and adjusting models to reflect operational and strategic changes.
  • Help maintain a set of metrics and dimensions that accurately reflect the performance of Airbnb


Skills and experience:


  • BA/BS in a quantitative field (e.g. statistics, mathematics, econometrics, computer science, physics); advanced degree is a plus
  • 6+ years’ industry experience in data science, analytics, economic consulting, demand forecasting, or similar role
  • Expert knowledge in Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, and Random Effects Models
  • Experience with hierarchical Bayesian models, variational Bayes, PyMc3, and/or Tensorflow a plus
  • Expert in SQL and experienced with writing production code in R, Python, and/or other programming languages
  • Focused on creating value by solving real business problems by combining business insights with the appropriate technical tool
  • Keen eye for detail and thoughtful investigation of data before relying upon it
  • Strong communication/presentation skills with track record of presenting complex analyses to executives/ senior management clearly and concisely


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